MLS week 10

[rolltide]

early thoughts...

Toronto vs New England
- just can't touch Toronto FC this week though their home form has been great and they owe the depleted Revs some revenge. But they played Vancouver in midweek, in Vancouver, then traveled cross country to play an early Saturday game with a team that Preki has said is very fatigued. New England did play a midweek friendly at home vs Benfica but that is very different than a competitive match like Toronto played. I'd have given them still a serious look but with both de Guzman (injured) and De Rosario missing on International duty, no way. Still likely a close, low scoring 1-0 for TFC as somehow the Revs will lose this despite Toronto being without their only two real offensive weapons. Home team 5-3-0 in this series

KC vs Columbus
- Cbus dismantled the Red Bulls in midweek without Schelotto who will return for the Wizards' match, but they'll still be without Marshall and Rogers with USMNT. KC missing important Espinoza and Auvrey but can't back the Wizards and can't back a team playing 3rd match in a week and b2b on the road. Cbus unbeaten in 7 vs KC

Chivas USA vs RSL
- gonna watch where the line goes here. Goats missing Bornstein and Klejstan with USMNT while RSL only missing Findley who isn't starting anyway. CUSA tough to beat at home and if line moves to -1/4 2+ or even pk 1.75 I will hit the goats. CUSA 7-2-1 home vs RSL

Houston vs DC United
- no early thoughts here. Big class difference but Houston not a team you want to lay a full goal with very often. Still reviewing some things...Houston 5-1-1 L7 vs DC

Seattle vs San Jose
- San jose just a pathetic road team, very lucky to grab a point out of NE. Seattle dominated the Red Bulls but this at least is West vs West. Seattle another team you don't want to be laying wood with due to their incompetence in front of the opposing goal. Home team 3-0-0 8/1 last year

 

[rolltide]

Seattle vs San Jose
- I've got San Jose at 0-4-8 in last 12 games on field turf with draws coming this year to NE, last year at Tor, and 2008 at both Tor and RSL. Other than that, 8 losses to Seattle, RBNY, RSL, and Toronto in the last few years. Of course this year's NE team is awful, last year's Toronto team was awful, and both RSL/Tor were awful in 2008 so those draws aren't all that impressive either. Unfortunately Seattle play on the plastic stuff so certainly a big advantage there but what I really like about this game is the motivation factor. Last time at home Seattle was so bad they gave fans their money back for attending the LA game. Now this is the first home game after that performance so players will be amped up for sure. They showed their true ability last week in New York, defeating the Red Bulls 1-0 in a game not nearly that close. They smothered the Red Bulls attack allowing just ONE shot on goal in the match and not allowing a single scoring chance in a road game. San Jose gave up a lot of possession to a New England team with a no-name midfield so I expect Seattle to certainly create chances but whether or not they finish them will be the difference in the match. SJ with potentially MF problems if Gjertsen, Alvarez, and Eduardo can't go but they do have the current longest shutout streak going in MLS right now. Seattle could be without a few of their more defensive MF but are likely to have Pat Noonan ready in attack and important Alonso expected to return as well. Seattle are the better team though SJ in better form but the Sounders have a lot to prove this week to the fans and I expect a very good performance. Shouldn't be many goals scored so I'll call for a 1-0.

Seattle 4u -120

 

[floyd2100]

Asian Handi on Seattle is -0.5,-1 +104. I'll give it a shot.

 

[hm2.0]

Actually, I thought SJ deserved the pt. it got at NE...if anything, they had the slightly better run of play...a couple better chances.

TFC, apparently DeGuzman is ? v. NE.

Seattle...can't disagree despite the Quakes being in-form of late. Sounders need to get that home loss v. LA out of their system.

SJ is more solid def. Opara is a candidate for rookie of the yr. & Hernandez is healthy.

Sounders' Alonso if more prob. than ? and they need his grit on a team of softies like Ljungberg & Montero.

Sea has been vulnerable to set pieces and that's where Johnson & Opara can do some damage. Of course, as you mentioned, Quakes were lousy on the road last yr - 1-1-1 so far in '10.

 

[X-Files]

Shouldn't be many goals scored so I'll call for a 1-0.

I am seeing Seattle at +620 for a win at that score.

Also under 2.5 -127 at Pinnacle.

 

[rolltide]

well they had two good chances...8th minute then real late in NE but I thought they were awful especially against the opposition they were playing. But they got the shutout and a point...hopefully not today. Of course I've lost 6 straight games so WTF do i know?

YTD 11-13 +5.38 (+5%) staked 108.33
Regular 11-9 +23.48
Parlay 0-4 -2.00

Houston vs DC United
- odds dropping on DC United so I will bet against that move. if DC's 1-0-7 record doesn't look bad enough consider, out of those 8 games, they have yet to play any of the Western Conference's current top 4 teams (Houston, SJ, RSL, LA) and have also missed the Eastern Conference's top squad, Columbus. So they've had probably the easiest schedule in the league and still sit dead last on the table with just 3 points. Not to mention they've had 4 of their last 5 matches on home turf, so don't expect much change in their record this time in July. DC's backline has improved, allowing just 1 goal in each of the past 3 games but they have failed to score in 4 out of their last 5. They did pressure Dallas for 20' without scoring but really haven't produced a decent chance in their last 160' of play. Offensively Quaranta remains out, Pontius returning but not match fit yet, and Emilio also not match fit. They received terrible news this week when their young keeper, Hamid, who has been sensational hurt himself in practice so we see the return of out-of-form keeper, Perkins, to the lineup. The defense is playing better for sure though regulars Namoff, Burch, and Jakovic remain out. The one good thing for the week is that DC doesn't have anyone on international leave like Houston, who will miss Ching (USA), Onstad (CAN), and Hainault (CAN). So, for the first time in his career Tally Hall will start a regular season MLS match. He only played in two games while in Esbjerg and has only played in friendlies and group stage CLL matches so far for Houston. But no better opponent to face for your debut than punchless DC at home! Houston are very up and down so not the easiest team to back. They were awesome against KC who are at DC's low level, but then awful against both Dallas and RSL. Still you have to respect them at Robertson Stadium where they have lost just 6 of their last 50 matches (31-13-6) and 3-1-0 at home vs DC. They are on a solid 5-1-1 streak against DC and those were decent DC teams, not the current scrubs and horrendous coach DC have played just 3 away games so far and are 0-0-3 2/8 and have only won once in their last 15 MLS trips. Houston getting healthier up front with Landin/Oduro/Weaver all ready to go and with Joseph Ngwenya's visa situation finally done. Of course they lack in creative midfield with Cameron out for the year but they have way too much speed up front for DC's porous defense. Hopefully they don't play too conservatively with the youngster in net because the way to beat DC is attacking them just like Houston did to KC. And just to update on my running figures on how Eastern teams are doing on the road at Western teams? that now stands at 1-4-12

Houston 4.5u -144 (same stake if you only have -.75 -108)

 

[rolltide]

just a HT observation in Toronto match...Shalrie Joseph is back for the Revs and they look like an entirely different team, that's how important he is! still 0-0 HT but if they keep him off the sauce, get Twellman/Osei/Reis back soon they can be a nice play on team as an underdog for rest of the season.

hm, just saw your comment on de guzman. even if he's healed he was called into the Canadian team for Monday's match. both him and derosario are only playing that one game and each will be available for following match as they will not play vs Venezuela

 

[rolltide]

Seattle 0-1
- carbon copy of their 0-1 loss to RBNY earlier this year at home. SJ had ONE SHOT ON GOAL all match and only 3 shots total while Seattle sent 17 toward the SJ cage but almost all of them wide including some great chances. Corners 11-3 and Ljunberg continues to be the most overpaid, overrated player in the league with 0 goals and 2 assists this year

of course correctly predicted TFC final without betting it. that's how things go when form turns sour. My team allows 1 SOG and I friggin lose the bet...but of course if I'd have bet the under it would have ended 2-1

 

[X-Files]

Your thoughts on a 1-0 final & low scoring game were right on the mark.

 

[rolltide]

Oduro really coming into his own this year without slow-ass Ching up front. Really impressive year he is having!

YTD 12-14 +5.08 (+4.2%) staked 119.61
Regular 12-10 +7.08
Parlay 0-4 -2.00